No Surprise Here

No Surprise Here: A look into the Russian election

Russia held its presidential elections from the 15th to the 17th of March 2024. To no surprise, the incumbent Vladimir Putin won. With this latest victory, he has secured a 5^th term in office. Putin was first elected president of Russia in 2000. During that period the Russian constitution limited presidents to, two successive terms at a time. After this, a former two-term president could only seek re-election after a ‘breather’ period out of office. In comparison, the American constitution limits presidents to two terms in office during their lifetime. 

Putin served two successive terms as president for 8 years. At the end of his second term in 2008 he became ineligible to run again. In a cunning move, he threw his support behind Dmitry Medvedev. Unsurprisingly, once Medvedev was elected president, he appointed Putin as prime minister. This political switcheroo let Putin keep his grip on power whilst technically adhering to the Russian constitution. In 2012 when Putin became eligible to run, he served two more terms as president. By then the Russian constitution had been amended, increasing the length of presidential terms from four to six years. Following this he remained in power for another 12 years. 

Putin should have been ineligible to run for presidential office in 2024. However, the Russian constitution was amended again in 2020. Part of the amendments allow him to run for two more terms without needing a 2008-style break. As a result, Putin could hold presidential office until 2036. 

Despite facing heavy criticism in the West Vladimir Putin remains fiercely popular at home. He won the latest election by a resounding margin of over 80%. In contrast, during the 2020 US presidential election, Biden secured only 51.3% of the popular vote. Additionally, turnout for the Russian election was over 77% compared to 67.3% in the 2019 UK general election and 66.8% in the 2020 US Presidential election. Additionally, nearly 78% of Russians voted in favour of the 2020 constitutional amendments, which resulted in Putin maintaining his power. 

Western commentators are often baffled by Putin’s popularity. One explanation can be found in his rise to power.   Former Russian president Boris Yeltsin resigned In December 1999 and Putin became acting president. In the eyes of many Russians, Yeltsin was an incompetent, corrupt, US puppet. Contrastingly, Putin became a brilliant young leader unbeholden to Western powers. A patriot who genuinely looks out for the interests of the Russian people. Today, Russians view him as the saviour who returned the nation to its place of prestige on the global stage. Despite Western vilification, Russia enjoys good relations with China, and India and influence over the expanding BRICS group of nations. Russians credit Putin with stabilising the economy after the turbulent post-Soviet era, and some believe he has improved living conditions. By positioning himself as a strong opponent to the West, he appeals to Russians who feel their country is being unfairly targeted with continuous sanctions. 

Yet the decimation of opposition voices and the absence of independent media resembles a dystopian novel. The methods used to secure this level of popularity are questionable. Just a month before the 2024 election, Putin’s staunchest critic Alexei Navalny mysteriously passed away. At the time of his death, Navalny was serving a 3-year sentence in a Siberian penal colony. Throughout his life, Navalny exposed widespread corruption within the Russian state. In 2020 Alexei Navalny was poisoned with Novichok, he was later evacuated to a hospital in Germany. Following the attempt on his life, Navalny chose to return to Russia. Upon his arrival, he was swiftly arrested and jailed in Siberia. During an interview with LBC the Russian ambassador to the UK fiercely denied allegations of foul play by the Russian government. Conversely, Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya has accused Putin of murdering her husband. 

In the end, the Russian election yielded no surprises, although some hoped it would reveal a chink in the armour. Irrespective of the Ukraine war and economic sanctions, Putin’s political power remains strong. In the eyes of many Russians, he represents a brave, honest, patriot who stands against Western tyranny. To others, he is a warmonger who orchestrates assassinations and silences all forms of dissent.