A Seat or Two: A look into the July 2023 by-elections
On the 20th of July, by-elections were held to fill three vacant seats in the House of Commons. By-elections can be a shockingly mundane part of British politics. In circumstances where a right honourable Member of Parliament dies or resigns, their legislative seat is swiftly filled. In those instances, it’s expected that the incoming MPs will hail from the same party as their predecessor. This usually makes for an altogether dull affair. However, the results of the recent by-elections served as a barometer, heralding a storm for the Conservative Party.
A by-election was held in the constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the significance being the seat was formerly held by ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His fall from grace was marked by scandals involving his conduct during lockdown. All of which culminated in his resignation as Prime Minister and subsequent resignation as a Member of Parliament. Mr Johnson announced his MP resignation ahead of a damning verdict from the House of Commons Privileges Committee. The Committee was days away from publishing its findings into Johnson’s conduct in wake of the ‘Party Gate’ scandal. The committee found that on several occasions Mr Johnson misled the House of Commons. The 90-day suspension recommended by the Committee would’ve triggered a by-election, but in true Boris fashion, he jumped before he was pushed.
The constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip has long been considered a Conservative safe seat. To that effect, the outgoing ex-prime minister was replaced by another Conservative party member. However, the by-election was won by a razor-thin margin. When all was said and done, the Conservatives won 13,965 votes and Labour 13,470, the difference being just 495 votes. The inauspicious timing of this by-election is a stark warning to Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. With a general election on the horizon, the party cannot afford shaky margins in traditionally Conservative heartlands.
It’s hard to suggest the antics of former Prime Minister Johnson played no part in the outcome of the by-election. However, the by-election in Uxbridge bizarrely centred on the local issue of Ultra Low Emission Zones (ULEZ). The so-called ULEZ policy was introduced by the Labour Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan. It imposes a daily fee on cars driving in central London that don’t meet current emissions standards. These often-older vehicles can release dangerous pollutants into the air, and the policy aims to discourage their use. Ahead of plans to bring ULEZ to surrounding London areas, Uxbridge’s proximity to central London was exploited by the Conservatives. Their campaign was framed as a ‘referendum’ on the Labour Mayor’s divisive policy. The result of an expansion would be an additional tax on the constituents of Uxbridge. Against the backdrop of a cost-of-living crisis, the Conservatives managed to deflect focus from their tumultuous party conflicts to issues of pennies and pounds.
Contemplating the upcoming general election, Labour seems to have pivoted away from the controversial ULEZ policy. However, reluctance to pursue a policy on air pollution for fear of losing votes raises a question of integrity. Labour has also back-tracked on their flagship £28bn ‘green prosperity plan’. If elected to government, the party promised revolutionary funding for climate-friendly investments. This would have been achieved through extensive government borrowing. In a bid to prove their fiscal credibility, the pledge has since been scaled back. In my view, a Labour Party willing to abandon long-term objectives and bend to short-term political forces doesn’t appear primed to govern. The fickle nature of public opinion often has little bearing on what is true, right, or beneficial. Take the Brexit referendum as an example. An effective executive requires endurance in the pursuit of long-lasting reforms.
The other by-elections were held in the constituency of Somerton and Frome and the constituency of Selby and Ainsty. In Somerton, the seat was vacated by Conservative David Warburton amidst allegations of sexual harassment and drug use. Meanwhile, in Selby, the seat was vacated by Nigel Adams, an ally of ex-Prime Minister Johnson. In Selby, the former Conservative constituency was persuaded to vote Labour. Their candidate secured 16,456 votes to the Conservatives 12,295 (a difference of 4,161). The Liberal Democrats were triumphant in Somerton. Their candidate earned a whopping 21,187 votes to the Conservatives’ modest 10,179 (a difference of 11,008). Some now speculate these stunning defeats are a sign of things to come in the general election.
The facts remain, three seats in the House of Commons became vacant. Each of the seats has historically been held by Conservative MPs. The Conservatives lost two out of the three seats. They clung to just one seat, but only by a thin margin. It doesn’t automatically follow that Labour will emerge victorious in the general election, but what’s clear is, in Somerton and Selby at least, voters do not support the party currently in government.