A Game of Thrones: A look into the invasion of Ukraine
On the 24th of February 2022, the chilling sounds of air raid sirens returned to Europe once more. The sirens marked the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. An invasion of one European state by another is a sight many hoped to never see again. Sadly, the recent geopolitical tensions have spilt over into war. The actions of Vladimir Putin are lamentable, detestable, and confusing. Given the many lessons learnt in history, what is there to gain from war? Yet, in the mind of the Mad Titan, his actions are justifiable and serve a strategic purpose.
Rising inflation, climate change, xenophobia, disinformation, gender-based violence. In the coming weeks, these issues and many more will be exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Barely a week into the conflict some are already beginning to surface. This is the nature of the beast, the abhorrent nature of war. In the age of virtual reality and space exploration, we find ourselves living through a terrifying game of thrones. The kings and queens are replaced by prime ministers and presidents; noble houses are replaced by sovereign states. The constant is a complex conflict fuelled by the motives and ambitions of powerful leaders.
Following the 2014 revolution, Ukraine’s pro-Russia president was deposed. Eight years on, Russia wants Ukraine back under its influence. The two countries have historic ties and a shared Slavic history. For all that, the invasion by Russia only strengthened the bond between Ukraine and the West. Tales of the stoicism and resilience of the Ukrainian people are widespread. Their bravery is exemplified in reports of civilians taking up arms, ready to die in defence of their homeland. The UK Home Secretary even amended the UK’s notoriously strict immigration policy to accommodate Ukrainian refugees. Now, the Ukrainian president has appealed for a fast-tracked admission into the EU. This appeal is met by support from member states such as Poland, Estonia, and the Czech Republic, though the proposal is still largely controversial. In this early phase of the war, Putin’s calculations seem to have backfired. Putin did not expect this level of unity amongst the international community. He grossly underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainian people.
Despite declarations of support, the mood in the West is reluctant when it comes to committing troops. The war in Ukraine is in its infancy. Diplomatic talks persist, but a swift resolution is unlikely. Following the failings in Afghanistan, western political leaders fear criticism over another drawn-out conflict. The British Prime minister knows, despite widespread support for the Ukrainian people, the public reaction may turn sour once troops’ lives are at risk. With elections to consider, Boris Johnson cannot afford another bout with the public. In a press conference, Mr Johnson was asked about instituting a no-fly zone over Ukraine. He confirmed the British government had no plans to impose such a measure, the reason being it would involve British soldiers shooting down Russian planes that breach the no-fly zone. This would put the UK in direct combat with Russia, something he was not prepared to do.
Instead, the West flexes its financial muscle. London and New York host some of the most advanced global financial markets, and in 2022 the flow of capital is the sacred lifeblood of any modern state. The recent sanctions imposed on Russia resulted in an almost 30% drop in the Russian currency. That sting is sure to be felt in Moscow. On the other hand, Putin is an old-fashioned soviet thug. Whilst the West fights with intangible financial penalties, he responds with more brute force. Putin has put his nuclear forces on special alert. Russia has one of the most advanced nuclear programs in the world, serving as a grisly reminder of the palpable power Putin possesses. At the push of a button, the Mad Titan could plunge the world into further chaos. He already gave the international community a glimpse of his nature. The invasion of Ukraine was a step few thought he would actually take. Now, there is little doubt in the minds of political leaders, Putin is not a man to be tested.
Far in the east, the Dragon sleeps, yet there is a lot to be said for China’s silence. It is no secret that China is poised to be the next global superpower. Some speculate the Chinese economy will overtake America by 2030. This makes China the proverbial belle of the ball; politicians have attempted to court Her with varying degrees of success. Western leaders were noticeably muted in their criticism of the Chinese government over claims of human rights abuses against Uighur Muslims. In an emergency session, 141 nationsvoted in favour of a UN General Assembly motion condemning the invasion of Ukraine. Curiously, China was one of the countries that abstained from voting. Recently, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman stated China’s opposition to the use of sanctions in international conflicts. This criticism comes as tougher sanctions mount against Russia. A difference in approach may drive a wedge between western leaders and the world’s second-largest economy. Putin’s actions may even endear him to China, pushing the Dragon one step closer to choosing a side. Pro-Russia propaganda has little effect on western media; one wonders what effect disinformation could have in the far east.
Irrespective of the power games played by old white men, there is a very real cost to this conflict. It is not the billions spent on weapons or financial sanctions. It is the cost of human lives. An estimated 136 people have lost their lives in this conflict, and over 800,000 people have fled their homes. Sadly, in the coming weeks, many expect these figures to rise. As Ukrainians clamber to the borders, amongst them are non-Ukrainian nationals also fleeing the conflict. Many are migrants from Africa, India, and Pakistan. Due to their non-Ukrainian status, they receive less favourable treatment. Officials say they are prioritising women and children. Little assistance is given to the exhausted migrants who are frequently denied access to transport. Some are forced to walk to the border in freezing temperatures. The migrants describe being treated like animals by border officials, as opposed to humans seeking safety. Even in the midst of war, racism and xenophobia persist unabated.
As the conflict intensifies an important question stands. How much will the West intervene in Putin’s invasion?